Prof. Shugeng Dai
Department of Finance, School of Economics, Xiamen University, China
Research Area: International Finance and Macro Financial Management;Financial Theory and Policy
speech title：Does Capital Account Liberalization Exacerbate China’s Systemic Financial Risk? ——An Empirical Study Based on TVP-FAVAR and SV-TVP-VAR Models
Abstract：Capital account liberalization has always been the focus of debate in the academic community, and after the international financial crisis, its financial risk have gradually attracted attention. Considering the complex correlation between financial systems, this paper builds China’s systemic financial risk index covering seven dimensions based on TVP-FAVAR model. Then, after theoretical analysis, this paper empirically studies the dynamic impact mechanism of capital account opening on the systemic financial risk based on SV-TVP-VAR model. Following conclusions are drawn as followed. Firstly, the risk definition of financial indicators should be judged according to the different stages of economic growth, and its weight coefficient has dynamic time-varying characteristics. Secondly, according to the systemic financial risk index constructed in this paper, China’s systemic financial risk has been at a medium high in 2008 (international financial crisis) as well as in 2015-2016, whereas the risk have been moderated soon after. Thirdly, the impact of capital account opening on systemic financial risk also has time-varying characteristics. That is, capital account liberalization conductively had mitigated China’s financial risk before the financial crisis. And then, the risk effects of the opening had emerged subsequently, the short-term capital flows had been negatively impacted for a long time. Based on these conclusions, this paper proposes that capital account opening should be gradually promoted, and prudent management of short-term capital flows should be strengthened.
A.Prof. Baogen Ding
East China University of Technology，China
Research Area: The agricultural economy, green development, trade barriers
speech title：Study on the Efficiency of Inclusive green Growth in Agriculture in China
Abstract：This study constructed the agricultural comprehensive evaluation index system of green growth, based on China's agriculture and rural areas relevant data, using PCA-DEA comprehensive evaluation method, TAPIO decoupling analysis and TOBIT regression analysis, in-depth analysis of the efficiency of China's agricultural inclusive green growth distribution rules and influence factors of time and space, and put forward the feasible policy Suggestions. It provides reference for the formulation and implementation of high quality agricultural development policy in China.